Strong Underlying Momentum towards Smoke Free Future: PMI's 2022-Q2 Results

Philip Morris International stock rose 4.2% on Thursday, July 21 just after Q2 2022 results were released. In this content, I will review PMI’s 2022 second quarter results and I will share some key financials and more about their drivers to make the numbers more meaningful. Since I am an employee of PMI, I prefer to use “we”, “our” and “Emmanuel” (for our CFO Babeau) in some parts of the below content.

The data used in this content are all publicly available and it does not include any investing recommendation.

Q2 2022 results reflect the exceptional one-off events that have impacted PM this year, notably the loss of earnings from Russia and Ukraine and the sharp appreciation of the U.S. dollar. Excluding these, the underlying drivers behind PM’s businesses have remained strong, and full-year 2022 outlook has been raised on an organic basis.

Before the highlights, we need to remember the announcement that PMI intends to exit the Russian market in an orderly manner, as the complexities of continuing to operate in Russia increase, such as supply chain challenges and financial and banking sector restrictions.

PMI demonstrated strong underlying momentum in the second quarter of 2022 with another quarter of positive volume supporting better-than-expected growth. Most impressive was the continued excellent IQOS performance and strong Q2 user growth of more than 1.1 million, demonstrating further acceleration compared to Q1 as device limitation and COVID restrictions continue to ease. This reflects strong momentum in the EU region, Japan and developing markets.

The proposed addition of Swedish Match would further boost our future financial profile. This is a value-creating offer for both sets of shareholders with a compelling strategic and cultural fit, providing an additional opportunity to accelerate our smoke-free future.

During Q2 2022, PMI had good volume growth and good currency-neutral revenue growth. However, EBIT growth was weaker due to margin contraction and, including currency, both revenues and EBIT fell year-on-year.

Volume growth would have been stronger except for supply chain constraints, and the margin contraction was also due to one-off factors.

Let’s dive deep into the stories behind these numbers and ratios.

In 2021, Ukraine accounted for around 2% of PMI’s total cigarette and heated tobacco unit shipment volume and under 2% of PMI’s total net revenues.

In 2021, Russia made up almost 10% of total shipment volumes and around 6% of PMI net revenues.

Despite the impact of war in Ukraine, PMI increased its shipment volume by 1.1% compared to previous year.

Net revenues increased by 5.3% and this has mainly two drivers. The first one is the continued strong growth of IQOS and the second one is ongoing recovery of the combustible business. Here it is critical to keep in mind that the recovery is realized against a pandemic-affected comparison.

When we look at the revenue per unit, we see an increase by 4.1% in total. This increase is especially important because this year there is a delayed timing of shipments, as the company manages the cancellation of planned heated tobacco unit manufacturing in Russia and company faces disruptions in global supply chains generally.

Our operating income margin declined, and this reflected:

Firstly, the investment to further expand and match the speed of PMI's smoke-free portfolio growth, including the initial higher cost of ILUMA devices and heated tobacco units, and the replenishment of distribution channels as device constraints ease to support re-accelerating IQOS user growth;

Secondly, the impact of supply chain extra costs, notably due to the war in Ukraine; and

Thirdly, cost inflation driven by the global pandemic recovery and by the war in Ukraine, notably for certain direct materials, wages, energy and transportation costs.

Lastly, the decline also reflected a challenging prior year comparison, which included productivity savings.

When we look at the assumptions for the next two quarters;

In the third quarter, it is expected that IQOS and combustible volume trends will lead the top line growth.

There are some temporary headwinds which not only impacted PMI but also the whole World and the expectation is that these will ease in third quarter.

And in the last quarter of this year, HTU capacity problems will be better, so shipment volumes for HTU will increase as well.

One of the key updates in last quarter for PMI was its interest in Swedish Match.

Philip Morris International is in takeover talks with Swedish Match over a multibillion-dollar deal that would expand its smoke-free business.

In May, 2022, Philip Morris Holland Holdings B.V. (PMHH), an affiliate of PMI, announced a recommended public offer to the shareholders of Swedish Match to tender all shares in Swedish Match to Philip Morris Holland Holdings at a price of almost 16 billion USD in cash.

This alignment is strategic because it has the potential to create a global smoke free champion with PMI’s leading heated tobacco and Swedish Match’s oral nicotine brands. It will also open US market for PMI with nicotine pouch which has long term opportunities for smoke free categories. But the deal is not completed yet and PMI announces that the transaction is expected to close in the last quarter of this year.

To sum up:

Across H1 as a whole, total shipment growth was strong.

IQOS’ growth was helped by the new ILUMA device.

Combustible products perform well to support smoke-free transformation.

PMI is focused on its smoke free portfolio. IQOS will continue its dominance of the Heat-Not-Burn ("HNB") category, to grow strongly in Europe and remain at least stable in Japan. PMI has also launched its own e-vapor products since 2020 and has entered the nicotine pouch market with its own products on a limited scale.

Management comments reiterated their “unwavering” commitment to the dividend and hinted at the possibility of increasing it with cashflows from Swedish Match after deal close.

In conclusion, PMI provides positive updates for its investors which make the share prices increase.

Smart investors and analysts are focused on how to earn returns and how to cash out. 

Investors and analysts make decisions by asking critical Questions. That’s why I prefer to give a special part for Q&A session from the Investors’ Meeting. The key Questions are on IQOS new user momentum, Swedish Match acquisition, OI Margin decrease, menthol ban in Heat Not Burn Products and reintroducing IQOS in the US market.

The first question is about the strong IQOS new user momentum.

According to Emmanuel, our CFO, People realize all the benefits they can get by switching from combustible cigarettes to the IQOS product.

Emmanuel also states that we are enlarging the choice and that makes IQOS even more desirable and attractive.

Additionally, Emmanuel highlights that launching ILUMA is the second stage of the rocket in the various countries to sell IQOS even higher, so it brings momentum. This can also easily be seen in the above graph.

The second question is about Swedish Match transaction and other potential acquisitions.

Emmanuel highlights that we continue to expect the closing of the transaction in Q4, of course, subject to Swedish Match shareholder acceptance.

He also mentions that the priority and the focus in terms of acquisitions is on Swedish Match for the time being.

The third question is about the decrease in the margins and its relationship with the higher costs of ILUMA and HTUs and if this situation will continue or not.

Our CFO says that inflation is one of the headwinds on the margin. Also, there are costs that are coming from the disruption in the supply chain, notably coming from the war in Ukraine.

Moreover, there is a temporary acceleration of air freight charges. Emmanuel mentions that We're not going to keep air shipping on the long term.

In conclusion, inflation and other headwinds seen in Half One are temporary from PMI perspective.

The fourth question is about the full availability of devices when there is chip shortage.

Emmanuel states that it is crucial for smokers to have Access to IQOS device in order to get converted. He mentions that we see a rapid replacement of existing IQOS blade device by IQOS ILUMA in the markets where ILUMA is launched. So, the main objective is to equip the core consumer with new devices. According to Emmanuel, this temporary shortage will finalize so its temporary impact on the margin will be cleared.

The fifth question is about the impact of the proposed elimination of menthol variants in the EU for heat-not-burn products.

Emmanuel highlights the facts that this plan needs to be approved by the Parliament and by the European Council. Emmanuel reminds that it already has happened on a combustible business with almost no impact or very limited impact. So, it isn't clear that this will have a meaningful impact if it happens on our heat-not-burn business.

The sixth question is about the timing of reintroducing IQOS into the marketplace in the US.

For those who are not aware of the latest IQOS situation in the US market, in November 2021, PM USA had to remove IQOS from the market due to an import ban and (cease-and-desist) orders from the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC). Altria, which runs Philip Morris USA, announced it “does not expect to have access to IQOS devices” in 2022, but “remains focused on returning IQOS to the market and is working on re-entry plans.” 

Emmanuel only shares with the analysts that we expect to be in a position to introduce IQOS in H1 of 2023.

The last question is about Russia, mainly exporting IQOS devices to Russia and taking cash out of Russia for dividend payments are questioned.

Our CFO shares that there is no sanction for device export to Russia. Thus, although there are some limitations coming from supply chain related problems, exportation is not impacted.

For dividend Payment, it is not exercised by PMI so Emmanuel could not provide an answer about it. On the other hand, intercompany payments and royalties are paid without any problem.

All these announcements, investments and financials support PMI’s ambition to become a majority smoke-free product company by 2025, building on its 2016 commitment to a smoke-free future.