12 Haziran 2022 Pazar

Haftasonu Gündemim: Simit, Benzin, Yağmur, Sinema

Bu yazıyı 12 Haziran Pazar günü öğle yemeğinin hemen ardından yazıyorum. Şöyle bir içimi dökeyim de zamanı geldiğinde geriye dönüp bir gün baktığımda bir zamanlar neler düşünüp neler yapıyormuşum diye anımsama fırsatım olsun.

Haziran ortasındayız ama havalar yağmurlu seyrediyor. Hatta normalde bugün bu saatlerde şirket pikniğinde olacaktık ama hava muhalefeti sebebiyle ertelendi. İyi ki de ertelenmiş, sabah Okan ile Fenerbahçe'ye yüzmeye gittiğimizde, arabayı park edip ahmak ıslatan diye küçümseyip değmez dediğimiz yağmur için şemsiye açmamıştık ama kısa mesafede iyi ıslandık. Mevsimler eskisi gibi değil, ara mevsimler zaten kayboldu ama yaz ve kış da bir hayli değişti. Bugün annem ve teyzem Seferihisar'da yazlığı açacak, normalde hep bu aralar açarlar ama hiç gündemimizde yağmur olmazdı, hayır olsun bakalım...

Bu sabah simit almaya Migros'a gittim. 08:30'da açılıyormuş, ben daha erkenci olduğum için manav reyonundaki görevli beni kibarca uyarınca çıktım, hemen yakınındaki fırına gittim. "2 simit 1 zeytinli açma" istedim. Cüzdandan kartımı çıkarıp ne kadar dedim, 12 TL dedi, ödedim. Son simit alışımda, bir başka fırına tanesine 5 TL ödemiştim. 12 TL'yi duyunca, "saflığım" yüzünden "vay be burada demek ki hala 4 TL'ye satıyorlar" dedim. Neyse eve geldim, fırından aldığım poşeti açtım, ne göreyim: 1 simit ve 1 zeytinli açma... Yine zam gelmiş.

Zam demişken, bu aralar en azından benim fiziki ve sosyal medya (twitter) çevremde hep zam konusu gündemde. Şimdiye kadar benzine "bu geceden itibaren geçerli x TL zam gelecek" dediklerinde uğraşmazdım ne de olsa aracı çok kullanmıyorum, kısa mesafe benzinciye gitsem zaten tasarrufun bir kısmını yakacağım derdim. Önümüz bayram olunca, Cuma çıkan haberler sonrası üşenmedim, Cuma akşamı Okan'ın yatma vaktinden hemen önce baba-oğul aktivitesi olarak depoyu full'lemeye gittik. Hayatımda ilk kez kendi isteğimle kendi aracımın deposunu full'ledim. Cümle biraz garip oldu ama bir keresinde pompacı yanlış anlayıp fullemişti, öncesinde de şirket aracı kullandığım dönemlerde fullemişliğim vardı. Neyse çok kuyruk beklemeden yaklaşık 45 litre benzin alıp, litresinde 2 TL'den yaklaşık 90 TL bugün için avantaj sağladık. Bakalım bayram için İstanbul'dan Bursa aktarmalı İzmir'e gidişimiz bize kaça patlayacak...

Daldan dala haftasonu etkinliklerini anlatırken dünkü Jurassic World filminden de bahsetmemek olmaz. Bir süredir Okan'ın bu filmi beklediğini biliyordum, Nilgün de pandemi sebebiyle çok uzun zamandır sinemaya gitmeyince Cuma akşamından Cumartesi için bilet aldık. Hadi güzel bir salonda iyi bir ekranda izleyelim deyince kendimizi Akasya Cinemaximum Imax'de bulduk. Evde iki buçuk saat oturup izler miydim bilmiyorum ama o ekranda, o ses kalitesiyle film baya iyi geldi. Geriye de bize böyle hatırası kaldı.


Bana müsade, biraz kitap okuyarak Pazar günümü değerlendireyim...

2026 Değerlendirmesi: 2022'deki fiyatları okuyunca enflasyonu anmamak elde değil. Ne ara fiyatlar bu kadar yükseldi yahu...

28 Mayıs 2022 Cumartesi

Feedback in a Minibus

Recently, I witnessed an exemplary constructive feedback in the Bostancı-Kadıköy minibus. I was sitting next to the driver in the minibus, and as it was approaching the final stop, a passenger who was about to get off approached the captain in a low voice and said, "Butts and paper have been thrown in the back seats, have them cleaned at some appropriate time, okay?" he said and got off, wishing him a good day. It was a very good example of timely, constructive feedback.



21 Mayıs 2022 Cumartesi

About PMI’s Integrated Report 2021| What I Read and Understand


On 17 May 2022, Philip Morris International (PMI) announced its Integrated Report for 2021 which describes how the company is delivering on its purpose and provides detailed information about its strategic vision, performance, governance, and value creation. The content of the report is shaped by a formal sustainability materiality assessment conducted during 2021. This is the third annual integrated report of PMI, and as a PMI employee with interest in sustainability, this report is exciting read for me.

About PMI

For those who are not familiar with the company, report starts with general information about the company. Accordingly Philip Morris International is a leading international tobacco company working to deliver a smoke-free future and evolving its portfolio for the long-term to include products outside of the tobacco and nicotine sector.

The company’s current product portfolio primarily consists of cigarettes and smoke-free products, including heat-not-burn, vapor, and oral nicotine products, which are sold in markets outside the U.S. Since 2008, PMI has invested more than USD 9 billion to develop, scientifically substantiate, and commercialize innovative smoke-free products for adults who would otherwise continue to smoke, with the goal of completely ending the sale of cigarettes.


With a strong foundation and significant expertise in life sciences, in February 2021, PMI announced its ambition to expand into wellness and healthcare areas and deliver innovative products and solutions that aim to address unmet patient and consumer needs.

CEO’s Message

As a finance professional, I am focused on seeing numbers and PMI’s CEO Jacek Olczak clearly states the numbers while sharing the company’s objectives:

"Our ambition is that by 2025, at least USD 1 billion of our net revenues will derive from these adjacent avenues of growth, marking an initial milestone for a business with potential to grow much further over the longer term. In 2021, we kept our relentless focus on that ambition, dedicating 99 percent of our research and development and 73 percent of our commercial expenditure to smoke-free products. Moreover, smoke-free products represented over 29 percent of our adjusted net revenues and, by year-end, we estimate that more than 15 million adults in total had switched to IQOS and stopped smoking. The strong position of our smoke-free business has allowed us to accelerate our timeline; early in 2021, we announced our ambition that by 2025 our smoke-free products would be sold in 100 markets and at least 50 percent of our net revenues would derive from smoke-free products."

CFO’s Message

What I notice in PMI is that our CFO Emmanuel Babeau shows an ownership on sustainability. The level of importance he gives is also clear from the message he shares within the report:

"Strategy, Finance, and Sustainability—the three teams I lead—play a critical role within today’s PMI and have the capacity to establish a roadmap for success that not only responds to short-term needs but also accounts for medium- and long-term impacts. To achieve our ambitions, it has been of paramount importance for our entire organization to recognize that sustainability and financial performance are mutually reinforcing and part of the same strategy. That is why integrated reporting is a top priority: It allows all our employees, including management, as well as the company’s Board, our shareholders, and other stakeholders to understand how our financial and nonfinancial performance are interrelated."

And Chief Sustainability Officer’s Message

Our CSO Jennifer Motles highlights that PMI dedicated much of 2021 to strengthening its governance and better integrating sustainability into its corporate strategy.

Jennifer also states that "PMI’s Sustainability Index consists of 19 KPIs, which measure progress toward the 11 goals in our 2025 Roadmap. We aim to continuously improve our performance and drive material and measurable progress—all communicated through open and clear reporting and disclosure."

Transforming for Good

Transforming the company is not only about substituting one product with a new one. It is described in a holistic way:

Sustainability stands at the core of PMI’s transformation and helps address some of the challenges resulting from the transition, while spurring innovation and better positioning the company for success over the long haul. The complexity of our strategy comes from simultaneously managing the impacts of two value chains—the one we are aiming to move away from (our cigarette portfolio) and the one we are moving towards (our smoke-free portfolio)— while also managing the impacts of the transition itself.

Anchoring Sustainability at the core of Strategy

For PMI, sustainability is more than just a means to minimize negative externalities and mitigate risks while maximizing operational efficiency and resource optimization. It is stated in bold:

"We can only achieve our purpose by embedding sustainability in all we do."

The biggest and most pressing negative externality PMI’s strategy aims to address is the health impacts of cigarette smoking. This is the most important contribution we can make to public health and is the cornerstone of PMI’s purpose and business strategy. Addressing this critical issue requires a three-part approach:

1. Develop better alternatives to smoking 

Research, develop, and commercialize scientifically substantiated nicotine-containing products that are less harmful than cigarettes

2. Accelerate smoking decline 

Provide broad access to adult smokers, who otherwise would not quit smoking, to ensure these products accelerate the decline of smoking prevalence

3. Make cigarettes obsolete 

Purposefully work to ensure these products ultimately replace cigarettes, driving their obsolescence

Despite its critical importance, achieving a smoke-free future is not PMI’s final horizon. PMI is simultaneously exploring adjacent opportunities for growth in wellness and healthcare, leveraging the capabilities we have accrued and developed while transforming our business. It is through these avenues of growth that we will achieve our ultimate goal: becoming a business that has a net positive impact on society and the environment.

Risk Management

PMI’s Global Head of Risk & Controls, Marie-Pauline Lauret mentions that they have various risk evaluation mechanisms in place to support the development of tailored strategies and responses for their priority ESG issues along our value chain. Focused on environmental and social issues, some of these assessments include human rights risks saliency mapping, periodic climate risk and opportunities assessments, product life cycle assessments, and deforestation and water risk assessments.

Product Impact

PMI’s CEO Jacek Olczak clearly states that:

“We can make an important contribution to accelerating the end of smoking. To achieve this objective, we are dedicating the vast majority of our resources to commercializing our smoke-free products. Everyone within our organization—regardless of business function—plays a crucial role in delivering on this purpose. We recognize that PMI alone cannot achieve a smoke-free future. Such systemic change requires a collaborative multistakeholder approach. In particular, we actively advocate for others in the industry to follow our lead by transforming their businesses, phasing out cigarettes, and reporting transparently on progress.”

Pre-transformation (in 2015), PMI’s combustible product volume totaled 881 billion units, or 99.9 percent of our shipment volume ratio, and, since then, in only seven years, it has declined by more than 26 percent. Over the same period, PMI’s smoke-free shipment increased to 95 billion units, representing 12.8 percent of our shipment volume in 2021.

What about the goal? Intentionally work toward phasing out cigarettes by ensuring that smoke-free products represent at least 30 percent of its shipment volumes and more than half of its net revenues by 2025 while continuing to reduce its combustible shipment volume.

In short, a future where PMI’s success is no longer based on cigarettes is targeted.

Appropriate Regulation and Taxation to Drive Cigarette Obsolescence

To speed up the process, regulators and public health authorities can ensure that adult smokers have access to accurate information about smoke-free products. They can introduce product standards to ensure that only scientifically substantiated smoke-free products are commercialized. And, through riskproportionate regulation and taxation, they can provide the right incentives to encourage adults who smoke to switch from cigarettes to less harmful, scientifically substantiated alternatives and incentivize manufacturers to direct their investments and R&D toward these better products. The acceptability of smoke-free products for adult smokers must always be balanced against the objective of minimizing use by unintended audiences such as never smokers, former smokers, and youth.

What about Countries that do not Permit Smoke-Free Products Sale?

There is a position state for those countries which do not permit smoke-free products sale:

Currently, some countries do not permit the sale of smoke-free products. We nevertheless continue to engage with stakeholders in these markets to advocate for regulatory frameworks that support tobacco harm reduction. We do not believe that banning smoke-free products is a rational policy, especially considering that these countries permit the sale of the most harmful forms of tobacco and nicotine consumption: cigarettes and other combustible tobacco products. Banning smoke-free alternatives runs counter to the aim of ending cigarette use.

Informing the World about the Smoke-free Category

Smoke-free alternatives are a new product category and are still relatively unfamiliar to most people. In 2019, PMI launched “Unsmoke”—a global corporate campaign deployed across various online and offline communications channels to address widespread misconceptions about the smokefree category and the concepts that underpin it.

The campaign’s core message is simple:

“If you don’t smoke, don’t start. If you smoke, quit. If you don’t quit, change.”

Currently, the campaign encompasses two distinct strands:

• Unsmoke Your World (UYW): Calls for positive change by reinforcing that quitting tobacco and nicotine altogether is the best choice and informing the adult general public that better, smokefree alternatives exist for those adult smokers who would otherwise continue smoking. It also encourages the public to get involved and calls for regulation that would allow adult smokers access to—and information about—better alternatives.

• Unsmoke Your Mind (UYM): Speaks to the regulatory and scientific community and other stakeholders with an interest in tobacco harm reduction policy. UYM challenges misconceptions around the smoke-free category and calls for an open and transparent conversation to support risk-proportionate regulation that differentiates smoke-free products from cigarettes. It also urges policymakers to put science and evidence at the center of decision-making


Operational Impact

PMI’s vision of a smoke-free future helps to attract and retain talent. The opportunity to contribute to achieving the company’s purpose is compelling to many, as is the chance to make a positive societal impact.

For more about PMI and its integrated report 2021, please visit:

https://pmidotcom3-prd.s3.amazonaws.com/docs/default-source/pmi-sustainability/pmi-integrated-report-2021.pdf

17 Nisan 2022 Pazar

Meet the OT Icebreaker Session with Martin Jobin!

In PMI Duty Free, there is an initiative which has been developed by the Finding Balance, Building Connections Project Team to address the need of providing more opportunities to Duty Free organization to interact with the Operations Team members with smaller groups and at the individual level and get to know them as a person and as a leader more closely. During these sessions, we have the time and the opportunity to interact 1:1, ask questions and share views.

On 2 March 2022, I had the chance to join the Icebreaker Session with Martin Jobin. Martin is currently working as Global Head Consumer Experience, Marketing and Digital in PMI Duty Free. He previously worked as Content and Activation Director Europe in Nissan Motor Corporation, Digital and Communication Manager in Infiniti Europe and Global Digital Senior Manager in Volvo Car Group.

Before the meeting, I just had the chance to google “Martin Jobin” and saw that Volvo still publishes his comments on their official site. Martin stated that “We are becoming a centre of excellence in interactive marketing” for Volvo. This is truly a transformation in automotive sector. After reading this statement, I decided to ask Martin the question below:

“How do you transfer the knowledge you gained from automotive industry to our smoke-free future vision? When you turn back to your career in PMI, which project or success story makes you most proud of?

Thanks to Martin, he answered my question frankly and shared some key digitalization projects in PMI. He told that all success is a team effort. He also highlighted that Scandinavians were so good at digitalization in early 2000s. He made us remember Nokia and Flash, and stated that Volvo was a cutting edge in automotive industry in those years.


We were 11 colleagues together with Martin during the session. My colleagues asked personal, professional and corporate level questions and I learned a lot from Martin’s answers. Leaving the business-related topics away, let me write down his recommendations on career management. Here are some of my key take-aways from this session:

·       Don’t overestimate the other industry. In every industry, we need to adapt so many things. Don’t think that things do not change, they do.

·        When you are new to an organization, first understand the organization. Learn who does what.

·        Make sure you always work on interesting projects. Ask yourself these questions:

o   What do you want your CV to show in 20 years from now?

o   What is my elevator speech?

·        Be mobile, reach different experiences, be curious about business needs. Make sure you understand the business roles and think about what is required to make it happen.

·        Continue learning not to fall behind. Always grow yourself.

·        Don’t stop planning for the future.

·        Empower your team. Make sure you have an exit to relax, spend time with friends and spare time for sport.

16 Nisan 2022 Cumartesi

Travel Trends of 2022

Although the COVID-19 pandemic devastated the travel and tourism industry, causing losses of almost USD 4.5 trillion, increasing vaccination levels and easing government restrictions are prompting the expectation of a strong return for the industry. ETF Managers Group recently published the travel trends for 2022. According to the report, the travel industry still has ample expansion opportunities.

Increasing vaccination levels are beginning to ease travelers’ concerns, and as the travel industry recovers from the pandemic-related blow, travel technology companies are naturally poised to reap the benefits.

The flexibility by the “Work from Wherever” Movement presents a unique opportunity for workers to pack up their laptops and mix leisure travel with remote work. With more companies allowing flexible remote work opportunities, we expect to see the travel industry continue to capture this growth as a result of the “Work from Wherever” trend.

In order to promote passenger and driver trust around safety and sanitation, ridesharing companies like Uber and Lyft have implemented safety measures aimed at easing the concerns of both riders and drivers. Ridesharing companies have implemented safety protocols to alleviate this concern, introducing physical partitions between drivers and riders, and requiring masks to be worn throughout the duration of the ride. Second, the increasing cost in private vehicle ownership due to rising fuel costs, maintenance, and insurance has led car ownership levels among individuals aged 18-35 to decline over the past several years. Millennials ‘and Gen Xers’ preference for ridesharing over outright car ownership has been linked to the perceived time and cost benefits of shared mobility, as well as their desire towards technology and on-demand services.

2022 may also see a surge in luxury travel as pent-up international travel demand is unleashed amid the stabilizing health situation and loosening border restrictions.

So, now, make sure your passport hasn’t expired!

 


Travel Trends of 2022

By Devin Ryder, CFA

The Travel & Tourism sector was ravaged by COVID-19 concerns, mandated lockdowns, and international mobility restrictions. In 2020, the global Travel & Tourism industry lost USD 4.5 trillion. Hit particularly hard, the sector’s overall contribution to GDP declined by 49.1% from 10.4% in 2019 to 5.5% in 2020, compared to a global GDP decline of 3.7%. International visitor spending plummeted by 69.4%, while domestic visitor spending dropped by 45%.

2021 has given us a glimpse into the growth potential that reduced restrictions and greater consumer confidence could provide. The US DOT reported that the volume of flights operated in 2021 was approximately 6.2 million. While this is certainly greater than 2020 levels, this value represents only 78% of the volume of flights operated pre-pandemic in 2019 (7.9 million). Thus, the industry still has ample expansion opportunities.

Increasing vaccination levels are beginning to ease travelers’ concerns, and as the travel industry recovers from the pandemic-related blow, travel technology companies are naturally poised to reap the benefits. Consumers increasingly rely on online travel agencies (OTAs) and ridesharing technologies to access travel-related services in a far more convenient and cost-effective fashion compared to traditional offline services. The online travel booking platform market alone is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.91% over the period 2022-2026 to reach $ 204.81 billion. As for the global ridesharing market, it is expected to reach USD 61.24 billion by 2026, increasing at a CAGR of 17.32% from 2021 to 2026.

The “Work from Wherever” (WFW) Movement

The COVID-19 pandemic brought rise to the work from home (WFH) era, a trend that is predicted to continue into the foreseeable future. Among 127 company leaders surveyed by Gartner, Inc., 82% plan to allow at least some remote work, and nearly half (47%) said they intend to allow employees to work remotely full time going forward. This flexibility presents a unique opportunity for workers to pack up their laptops and mix leisure travel with remote work; we are already seeing these employees take advantage.

Travelers intending to work while away have a unique set of characteristics that are defining the new wave of WFW. They have above-average spending power, saving an average of $ 4,000 annually on spending, often associated with office work – commuting, business attire, eating out, etc. Additionally, they have greater flexibility around travel dates. To serve this preference, short-term rental companies like Airbnb (ABNB) and Vrbo (EXPE) have added optionality for flexible dates.

Remote work may exacerbate the rise of vacation rentals as a preferred means of accommodations. A key characteristic of the working vacationer is the need for a work-friendly space to stay. Their needs include a quiet and comfortable space to work, as well as fast and reliable Wi-Fi. Short-term rental companies are poised to serve this need and capitalize on the remote work trend, as they generally provide more space for work than the typical hotel room. These companies have been working to enhance their features to accommodate the needs of working vacationers. For example, in 2021, Airbnb released a feature that allowed travelers to check the Wi-Fi speed of the listing before they booked.

WFW travelers also possess a greater ability to take extended trips. Not only did working travelers plan twice as many trips as those who planned to fully disconnect, but more than half of employee vacationers added 3 or more days to the duration of their longest leisure trip. In February 2021, 11% of surveyed remote workers said they had taken long trips because of remote work flexibility; by early October 2021, the number has risen to 23%. With more companies allowing flexible remote work opportunities, we expect to see the travel industry continue to capture this growth as a result of the WFW trend.

The Year of the “GOAT”

In addition to those mixing work with leisure, 2022 may see a surge in luxury travel as pent-up international travel demand is unleashed amid the stabilizing health situation and loosening border restrictions. For this reason, Expedia is calling 2022 the year of the “GOAT” (Greatest of All Trips). In a poll of 12,000 travelers across 12 countries, Expedia found that more than two-thirds of Americans (68%) are planning to go big with their next trip, eyeing international destinations like Rome, Bali, London, and Paris.10 Travelers worldwide are eager to make up for lost time and go big on their next trip after a prolonged period of canceled trips and postponed celebrations. According to a November report compiled by the WTTC and Trip.com, 70% of leisure travelers across the US, the UK, Canada, Japan, and Spain expect and plan to spend more money on travel in 2022 than they have in the past five years. Looking ahead, the future of the travel industry is looking bright as higher-income households have seen their savings increase, coupled with surging travel demand.

Ridesharing

The global ridesharing industry saw a drop of ~ 17% in revenue generation in 2020 from 2019. Lockdowns curtailed the need to travel too far from home, and consumers remained hesitant to use ride-sharing services, even after lockdown mandates were lifted. In order to promote passenger and driver trust around safety and sanitation, ridesharing companies like Uber (UBER) and Lyft (LYFT) have implemented safety measures aimed at easing the concerns of both riders and drivers. Things are beginning to look up for the shared mobility market, with an expected CAGR of 16.7% over the period 2021-2030.

This is being driven by several factors. First, many local travelers are still feeling discomforted by overcrowded public transportation options, driving demand for more comfortable intercity ride models. Ridesharing companies have implemented safety protocols to alleviate this concern, introducing physical partitions between drivers and riders, and requiring masks to be worn throughout the duration of the ride. Second, the increasing cost in private vehicle ownership due to rising fuel costs, maintenance, and insurance has led car ownership levels among individuals aged 18-35 to decline over the past several years. Millennials ‘and Gen Xers’ preference for ridesharing over outright car ownership has been linked to the perceived time and cost benefits of shared mobility, as well as their desire towards technology and on-demand services.

In their Q3 2021 financial results announcement, Uber reported that gross bookings reached an all-time high of $ 23.1 billion, up 57% YoY, with revenue up 72% over the same period. Lyft saw similar results, reporting Q3 2021 revenue growth of 73% YoY. We believe we’ll continue to see similar growth over the coming years as consumers become more comfortable with the state of public health.

Conclusion

Over the past decade, travel technology has grown from a niche concept to a primary means of sourcing and booking travel services. Although the COVID-19 pandemic devastated the travel and tourism industry, causing losses of almost USD 4.5 trillion, increasing vaccination levels and easing government restrictions are prompting the expectation of a strong return for the industry. As we look to the future of a post-COVID-19 world, we believe travel technology companies are poised to not only capture the residual growth but help to propel the industry forward with technological advancements aimed at addressing shifting consumer preferences.

Capture the pent-up demand for global travel and tourism with the ETFMG Travel Tech ETF (AWAY), the first ETF to provide investors access to top technology companies at the forefront of travel bookings, advice, price comparisons and ride sharing.


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